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Sustainability and Goal Fitness Index for the Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals: A Methodological Proposal

Wed, 05/04/2022 - 21:29

Sanny González, Gabriel Pereira, and Arturo González

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted in September 2015 by the 193 member states of the United Nations (UN), which include 17 goals, 169 targets and 244 indicators, as an attempt to radically change the approach of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Since the adoption of the 2030 Agenda, the scientific community has increased its interest in the evaluation, analysis, and evaluation of the interrelationships between the SDGs, proposing different approaches and using a diversity of methodological tools for the interactions of the SDGs. This research proposes a methodology that takes advantage of the concepts of Economic Fitness for the creation of a Sustainability Fitness Index (SFI) for the countries and a Goal Fitness Index (GFI) for each SDG. These indices are intended to provide a tool to analyze the interrelationships between the Sustainable Development Goals in such a way that they offer a new approach to address the capacities of the countries and the fulfillment of the SDGs. The results of the SFI are a first attempt to identify development priorities aligned with the SDGs in each country, based on their available productive capacities, which could help make more efficient use of their limited resources and increase the achievement of the SDGs.

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Universality out of order

Wed, 05/04/2022 - 17:18

Petter Holme 

Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 2355 (2022)

Orders, rankings, and hierarchies on one side, universal statistical laws on the other—it is rare that these core concepts of complex systems science meet. This Comment sets the scene for some recent discoveries in this too seldomly visited border zone.

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The universality in urban commuting across and within cities

Wed, 05/04/2022 - 15:17

Lei Dong, Paolo Santi, Yu Liu, Siqi Zheng, Carlo Ratti
Commuting is a key mechanism that governs the dynamics of cities. Despite its importance, very little is known of the properties and mechanisms underlying this crucial urban process. Here, we capitalize on ∼ 50 million individuals’ smartphone data from 234 Chinese cities to show that urban commuting obeys remarkable regularities. These regularities can be generalized as two laws: (i) the scale-invariance of the average commuting distance across cities, which is a long-awaited validation of Marchetti’s constant conjecture, and (ii) a universal inverted U-shape of the commuting distance as a function of the distance from the city centre within cities, indicating that the city centre’s attraction is bounded. Motivated by such empirical findings, we develop a simple urban growth model that connects individual-level mobility choices with macroscopic urban spatial structure and faithfully explains both commuting laws. Our results further show that the scale-invariants of human mobility will ultimately lead to the polycentric transition in cities, which could be used to better inform urban development strategies.

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What’s love got to do with it? From ‘survival of the fittest’ to compassionate connection [online course]

Mon, 05/02/2022 - 18:11

Richard A. Watson

A program for Earth Literacies

May 17th to June 7th, 2022

Why are we fighting and exploiting each other? And why are we destroying the planet’s natural resources and the balance of the global ecosystems we ourselves depend on? How do we treat each other and the biosphere with more kindness and compassion?

This course seeks to bring together the ideas of this new science and these worldviews to relieve the tension between self-interest and our impact on one another and the world around us. The focus will be both on presented material and what we can learn from each other to move into compassionate connection. The taught material will include slide presentations, with break-out room exercises, and opportunities to share reflections and to learn from one another in group discussion – and if Im feeling suitably brave and vulnerable, maybe a little guided visualisation to ‘feel into’ and invite the worldview we choose, and our role in it.

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Instability of networks: effects of sampling frequency and extreme fluctuations in financial data

Mon, 05/02/2022 - 12:45

Jalshayin Bhachech, Arnab Chakrabarti, Taisei Kaizoji & Anindya S. Chakrabarti 

The European Physical Journal B volume 95, Article number: 71 (2022)

What determines the stability of networks inferred from dynamical behavior of a system? Internal and external shocks in a system can destabilize the topological properties of comovement networks. In real-world data, this creates a trade-off between identification of turbulent periods and the problem of high dimensionality. Longer time-series reduces the problem of high dimensionality, but suffers from mixing turbulent and non-turbulent periods. Shorter time-series can identify periods of turbulence more accurately, but introduces the problem of high dimensionality, so that the underlying linkages cannot be estimated precisely. In this paper, we exploit high-frequency multivariate financial data to analyze the origin of instability in the inferred networks during periods free from external disturbances. We show that the topological properties captured via centrality ordering is highly unstable even during such non-turbulent periods. Simulation results with multivariate Gaussian and fat-tailed stochastic process calibrated to financial data show that both sampling frequencies and the presence of outliers cause instability in the inferred network. We conclude that instability of network properties do not necessarily indicate systemic instability.

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Who is Messing with Your Digital Twin? Body, Mind, and Soul for Sale? | Dirk Helbing | TEDxIHEID

Mon, 05/02/2022 - 11:59


In his talk, Dirk Helbing addresses the future of surveillance. The combined use of nano, digital, AI, and quantum technologies might lead society to a whole new level of surveillance. This would not only leave our privacy behind… Dirk Helbing is Professor of Computational Social Science at the Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences at ETH Zurich and affiliate of its Computer Science Department. Furthermore, he is member of the external faculty of the Complexity Science Hub Vienna.

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[Classics] More Is Different: Broken symmetry and the nature of the hierarchical structure of science.

Fri, 04/29/2022 - 16:28

SCIENCE • 4 Aug 1972 • Vol 177, Issue 4047 • pp. 393-396

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Lipari Summer School: Complex networks: from socio-economic systems to biology and the brain

Thu, 04/28/2022 - 15:26

July 10th – July 16th, 2022

Lipari, Italy

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Alien Debate: Sara Walker and Lee Cronin | Lex Fridman Podcast

Thu, 04/28/2022 - 13:00

Sara Walker is an astrobiologist and theoretical physicist. Lee Cronin is a chemist. This is a conversation and debate about alien life and alien civilizations. 

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Self-organization in Pedestrian and Traffic Systems and Logistics MOOC

Wed, 04/27/2022 - 15:03

•Content: 3 Modules, each consisting of several videos
•Estimated: 4 work weeks, 1h per week
•Self-​paced, progress at your own speed
•No cost to enrol
•Subject: Computer Science, Traffic Systems, Social Science
•Level: Introductory
•Language: English
•Target groups: Students, citizen scientists, politicians, journalists, researchers of different fields
(urban planners, architects, computer scientists)
•Recommended Reading: Helbing, Dirk. Next Civilization: Digital Democracy and Socio-​Ecological Finance-​How to Avoid Dystopia and Upgrade Society by Digital Means. Springer
Nature, 2021

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Online misinformation is linked to early COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy and refusal

Tue, 04/26/2022 - 23:29

Francesco Pierri, Brea L. Perry, Matthew R. DeVerna, Kai-Cheng Yang, Alessandro Flammini, Filippo Menczer & John Bryden
Scientific Reports volume 12, Article number: 5966 (2022)

Widespread uptake of vaccines is necessary to achieve herd immunity. However, uptake rates have varied across U.S. states during the first six months of the COVID-19 vaccination program. Misbeliefs may play an important role in vaccine hesitancy, and there is a need to understand relationships between misinformation, beliefs, behaviors, and health outcomes. Here we investigate the extent to which COVID-19 vaccination rates and vaccine hesitancy are associated with levels of online misinformation about vaccines. We also look for evidence of directionality from online misinformation to vaccine hesitancy. We find a negative relationship between misinformation and vaccination uptake rates. Online misinformation is also correlated with vaccine hesitancy rates taken from survey data. Associations between vaccine outcomes and misinformation remain significant when accounting for political as well as demographic and socioeconomic factors. While vaccine hesitancy is strongly associated with Republican vote share, we observe that the effect of online misinformation on hesitancy is strongest across Democratic rather than Republican counties. Granger causality analysis shows evidence for a directional relationship from online misinformation to vaccine hesitancy. Our results support a need for interventions that address misbeliefs, allowing individuals to make better-informed health decisions.

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Evolution of metamemory based on self-reference to own memory in artificial neural network with neuromodulation

Tue, 04/26/2022 - 22:29

Yusuke Yamato, Reiji Suzuki & Takaya Arita
Scientific Reports volume 12, Article number: 6233 (2022)

The ability of humans to self-monitor and control their memory processes is called metamemory and has been widely studied as a component of metacognition in cognitive psychology. Metamemory in non-human animals has also been investigated in recent years, although it had been regarded as a truly unique characteristic of human memory. We attempt to evolve artificial neural networks with neuromodulation, which have a metamemory function. Our constructive approach is expected to contribute, by introducing a novel dimension of evolutionary plausibility, to the discussion of animal experiments to detect metamemory. In this study, we demonstrate the evolution of neural networks that have a metamemory function based on the self-reference of memory, including the analysis of the evolved mechanism of metamemory. In addition, we discuss the similarity between the structure of the evolved neural network and the metamemory model defined by Nelson and Narens.

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The probabilistic pool punishment proportional to the difference of payoff outperforms previous pool and peer punishment

Tue, 04/26/2022 - 17:04

Tetsushi Ohdaira 
Scientific Reports volume 12, Article number: 6604 (2022

The public goods game is a multiplayer version of the prisoner’s dilemma game. In the public goods game, punishment on defectors is necessary to encourage cooperation. There are two types of punishment: peer punishment and pool punishment. Comparing pool punishment with peer punishment, pool punishment is disadvantageous in comparison with peer punishment because pool punishment incurs fixed costs especially if second-order free riders (those who invest in public goods but do not punish defectors) are not punished. In order to eliminate such a flaw of pool punishment, this study proposes the probabilistic pool punishment proportional to the difference of payoff. In the proposed pool punishment, each punisher pays the cost to the punishment pool with the probability proportional to the difference of payoff between his/her payoff and the average payoff of his/her opponents. Comparing the proposed pool punishment with previous pool and peer punishment, in pool punishment of previous studies, cooperators who do not punish defectors become dominant instead of pool punishers with fixed costs. However, in the proposed pool punishment, more punishers and less cooperators coexist, and such state is more robust against the invasion of defectors due to mutation than those of previous pool and peer punishment. The average payoff is also comparable to peer punishment of previous studies.

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Biocosmology: Biology from a cosmological perspective

Tue, 04/26/2022 - 15:32

Marina Cortês, Stuart A. Kauffman, Andrew R. Liddle, Lee Smolin
The Universe contains everything that exists, including life. And all that exists, including life, obeys universal physical laws. Do those laws then give adequate foundations for a complete explanation of biological phenomena? We discuss whether and how cosmology and physics must be modified to be able to address certain questions which arise at their intersection with biology. We show that a universe that contains life, in the form it has on Earth, is in a certain sense radically non-ergodic, in that the vast majority of possible organisms will never be realized. We argue from this that complete explanations in cosmology require a mixture of reductionist and functional explanations.

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A Complexity Science Approach Towards Improving Human Health

Mon, 04/25/2022 - 15:47

Center for Collective Dynamics of Complex Systems (CoCo) Seminar Series April 22, 2022 Rion Brattig Correia (Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, Portugal / SSIE,…

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Multilayer Networks: Analysis and Visualization: Introduction to muxViz with R, by Manlio De Domenico

Sun, 04/24/2022 - 15:30

Provides practical recipes to use muxViz for specific purposes, bypassing theoretical obstacles
Includes dozens of examples whose R code is provided and directly linked from inside the text
Comes with, and builds on, a significant extension of the muxViz platform that can be used without needing a GUI

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Quantifying changes in societal optimism from online sentiment

Sat, 04/23/2022 - 17:36

Calvin Isch, Marijn ten Thij, Peter M. Todd & Johan Bollen
Behavior Research Methods (2022)

Individuals can hold contrasting views about distinct times: for example, dread over tomorrow’s appointment and excitement about next summer’s vacation. Yet, psychological measures of optimism often assess only one time point or ask participants to generalize about their future. Here, we address these limitations by developing the optimism curve, a measure of societal optimism that compares positivity toward different future times that was inspired by the Treasury bond yield curve. By performing sentiment analysis on over 3.5 million tweets that reference 23 future time points (2 days to 30 years), we measured how positivity differs across short-, medium-, and longer-term future references. We found a consistent negative association between positivity and the distance into the future referenced: From August 2017 to February 2020, the long-term future was discussed less positively than the short-term future. During the COVID-19 pandemic, this relationship inverted, indicating declining near-future- but stable distant-future-optimism. Our results demonstrate that individuals hold differentiated attitudes toward the near and distant future that shift in aggregate over time in response to external events. The optimism curve uniquely captures these shifting attitudes and may serve as a useful tool that can expand existing psychometric measures of optimism.

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David Krakauer on Emergent Political Economies and A Science of Possibility

Sat, 04/23/2022 - 15:28

The world is unfair — but how much of that unfairness is inevitable, and how much is just contingency? After centuries of efforts to arrive at formal theories of history, society, and economics, most of us still believe and act on what amounts to myth. Our predecessors can’t be faulted for their lack of data, but in 2022 we have superior resources we’re only starting to appreciate and use. In honor of the Santa Fe Institute’s new role as the hub of an international research network exploring Emergent Political Economies, we dedicate this new sub-series of Complexity Podcast to conversations on money, power, governance, and justice. Subscribe for a new stream of dialogues and trialogues between SFI’s own diverse scholastic community and other acclaimed political economists, historians, and authors of speculative fiction.

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