Complexity Digest 2011.17
2011/09/02
Editor-in-Chief: Carlos Gershenson
Founding Editor: Gottfried Mayer
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Content
- FuturICT - A Knowledge Accelerator to Explore and Manage Our Future in a Strongly Connected World, arXiv
- Are There Laws of Genome Evolution?, PLoS Comput Biol
- Universal laws and economic phenomena, Complexity
- Complexity, arXiv
- Skylar Tibbits: Can we make things that make themselves?, TED.com
- The “unfriending” problem: The consequences of homophily in friendship retention for causal estimates of social influence, Social Networks
- Learning to Live with Complexity, Harvard Business Review
- Embracing Complexity An Interview with Michael J. Mauboussin, Harvard Business Review
- The Area and Population of Cities: New Insights from a Different Perspective on Cities, American Economic Review
- Five Differences Between Ecological and Economic Networks, arXiv
- How Many Species Are There on Earth and in the Ocean?, PLoS Biol
- Algorithms and mechanisms for procuring services with uncertain durations using redundancy, Artificial Intelligence
- Evolving dynamical networks: A formalism for describing complex systems, Complexity
- Predicting epidemic thresholds on complex networks: Limitations of mean-field approaches, Journal of Theoretical Biology
- War as a moral imperative (not just practical politics by other means), Proc. R. Soc. B
- Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate, Nature
- Did Einstein discover E = mc^2?, Physics World
- Communication patterns in a psychotherapy following traumatic brain injury: A quantitative case study based on symbolic dynamics, BMC Psychiatry
- Fertilizing Nature: A Tragedy of Excess in the Commons, PLoS Biol
- Emergence of robustness against noise: A structural phase transition in evolved models of gene regulatory networks, arXiv
- Book Announcements
- Handbook on the Economic Complexity of Technological Change, Edward Elgar Pub
- Maximum Entropy and Ecology: A Theory of Abundance, Distribution, and Energetics, Oxford University Press
- Dynamics of Biological Systems, Chapman and Hall/CRC
- The Origins of Evolutionary Innovations: A Theory of Transformative Change in Living Systems, Oxford University Press
- Epistemology of the Cell: A Systems Perspective on Biological Knowledge, Wiley-IEEE Press
- Links & Snippets
- Other Publications
- Event Announcements
- Webcast Announcements
- Other Announcements
FuturICT - A Knowledge Accelerator to Explore and Manage Our Future in a Strongly Connected World, arXiv
Abstract: We have built particle accelerators to understand the forces that make up our physical world. But we still don't understand the principles underlying our strongly connected, techno-socio-economic systems. To fill the knowledge gaps and keep up with the fast pace at which our world is changing, a Knowledge Accelerator must be urgently created. This 21st century challenge will be addressed by the FuturICT Flagship project. We envision that, after the age of physical, biological and technological innovations, Europe can lead the next era - a wave of social and socio-inspired innovations.
See Also: http://www.futurict.eu
Are There Laws of Genome Evolution?, PLoS Comput Biol
Excerpt: The universals of genome evolution can be accounted for by simple mathematical models similar to those used in statistical physics, such as the birth-death-innovation model. These models do not explicitly incorporate selection; therefore, the observed universal regularities do not appear to be shaped by selection but rather are emergent properties of gene ensembles. Although a complete physical theory of evolutionary biology is inconceivable, the universals of genome evolution might qualify as “laws of evolutionary genomics” in the same sense “law” is understood in modern physics.
Universal laws and economic phenomena, Complexity
Abstract: Despite the idiosyncratic behavior of individuals, empirical regularities exist in social and economic systems. These regularities often arise from simple underlying mechanisms which, analogous to the natural sciences, can be expressed as universal principles or laws. In this essay, I discuss the similarities between economic and natural phenomena and argue that it is advantageous for economists to adopt methods from the natural sciences to discover “universal laws” in economic systems.
Complexity, arXiv
Abstract: The term complexity derives etymologically from the Latin plexus, which means interwoven. Intuitively, this implies that something complex is composed by elements that are difficult to separate. This difficulty arises from the relevant interactions that take place between components. This lack of separability is at odds with the classical scientific method - which has been used since the times of Galileo, Newton, Descartes, and Laplace - and has also influenced philosophy and engineering. In recent decades, the scientific study of complexity and complex systems has proposed a paradigm shift in science and philosophy, proposing novel methods that take into account relevant interactions.
- Source: Complexity, Carlos Gershenson, arXiv:1109.0214, 2011/08/31
Skylar Tibbits: Can we make things that make themselves?, TED.com
About this talk: MIT researcher Skylar Tibbits works on self-assembly -- the idea that instead of building something (a chair, a skyscraper), we can create materials that build themselves, much the way a strand of DNA zips itself together. It's a big concept at early stages; Tibbits shows us three in-the-lab projects that hint at what a self-assembling future might look like.
The “unfriending” problem: The consequences of homophily in friendship retention for causal estimates of social influence, Social Networks
Abstract: An increasing number of scholars are using longitudinal social network data to try to obtain estimates of peer or social influence effects. These data may provide additional statistical leverage, but they can introduce new inferential problems. In particular, while the confounding effects of homophily in friendship formation are widely appreciated, homophily in friendship retention may also confound causal estimates of social influence in longitudinal network data. We provide evidence for this claim in a Monte Carlo analysis of the statistical model used by Christakis, Fowler, and their colleagues in numerous articles estimating “contagion” effects in social networks. Our results indicate that homophily in friendship retention induces significant upward bias and decreased coverage levels in the Christakis and Fowler model if there is non-negligible friendship attrition over time.
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Excerpt: Complex organizations are far more difficult to manage than merely complicated ones. It’s harder to predict what will happen, because complex systems interact in unexpected ways. It’s harder to make sense of things, because the degree of complexity may lie beyond our cognitive limits. And it’s harder to place bets, because the past behavior of a complex system may not predict its future behavior. In a complex system the outlier is often more significant than the average.
See Also: HBR Spotlight on Managing Complex Organizations
Embracing Complexity An Interview with Michael J. Mauboussin, Harvard Business Review
Summary: In his job as chief investment strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management, Michael J. Mauboussin has developed a healthy appreciation for complexity. Along the way"through his reports, books, teaching at Columbia Business School, and frequent conference appearances"he has become a leading exponent of how to navigate complex systems in financial markets and other aspects of life. In this edited conversation with HBR senior editor Tim Sullivan, Mauboussin talks about how his views on complexity feed into his daily practices and attitudes.
The Area and Population of Cities: New Insights from a Different Perspective on Cities, American Economic Review
Abstract: The distribution of city populations has attracted much attention, in part because it constrains models of local growth. However, there is no consensus on the distribution below the very upper tail, because available data need to rely on "legal" rather than "economic" definitions for medium and small cities. To remedy this difficulty, we construct cities "from the bottom up" by clustering populated areas obtained from high-resolution data. We find that Zipf's law for population holds for cities as small as 5,000 inhabitants in Great Britain and 12,000 inhabitants in the US. We also find a Zipf's law for areas.
Five Differences Between Ecological and Economic Networks, arXiv
Abstract: Ecological and economic networks have many similarities and are often compared. However, the comparison is often more apt as metaphor than a direct equivalence. In this paper, five key differences are explained which should inform any analysis which compares the two.
How Many Species Are There on Earth and in the Ocean?, PLoS Biol
Excerpt: Knowing the number of species on Earth is one of the most basic yet elusive questions in science. Unfortunately, obtaining an accurate number is constrained by the fact that most species remain to be described and because indirect attempts to answer this question have been highly controversial. Here, we document that the taxonomic classification of species into higher taxonomic groups (from genera to phyla) follows a consistent pattern from which the total number of species in any taxonomic group can be predicted. Assessment of this pattern for all kingdoms of life on Earth predicts ~8.7 million (±1.3 million SE) species globally, of which ~2.2 million (±0.18 million SE) are marine. (…)
Algorithms and mechanisms for procuring services with uncertain durations using redundancy, Artificial Intelligence
Excerpt: In emerging service-oriented systems, such as computational clouds or grids, software agents are able to automatically procure distributed services to complete computational tasks. However, service execution times are often highly uncertain and service providers may have incentives to lie strategically about this uncertainty to win more customers. In this paper, we argue that techniques from the field of artificial intelligence are instrumental to addressing these challenges.
- Source: Algorithms and mechanisms for procuring services with uncertain durations using redundancy, S. Stein, E.H. Gerding, A.C. Rogers, K. Larson, N.R. Jennings, DOI: 10.1016/j.artint.2011.07.002, Artificial Intelligence Volume 175, Issues 14-15, Pages 2021-2060, 2011/09
Evolving dynamical networks: A formalism for describing complex systems, Complexity
Abstract: We introduce a comprehensive formalism called an Evolving Dynamical Network (EDN) that aims to provide a common description for many types of complex system in applied science and engineering. We expand the currently available formalisms and define a new modeling framework able to incorporate network topology, dynamics, and evolution in an integrated way. Although the main focus is to provide a common framework, we find that evolving dynamical networks also highlight several interesting implications regarding possible control mechanisms for complex systems. A physical example is used throughout to illustrate the advantages and limitations of the various approaches described in the article.
Predicting epidemic thresholds on complex networks: Limitations of mean-field approaches, Journal of Theoretical Biology
Excerpt: We review previous mean field approximations theoretical work on epidemic thresholds.
War as a moral imperative (not just practical politics by other means), Proc. R. Soc. B
Excerpt: We present findings from one survey and five experiments carried out in the USA, Nigeria and the Middle East showing that judgements about the use of deadly intergroup violence are strikingly insensitive to quantitative indicators of success, or to perceptions of their efficacy. [...] Further, these findings are compatible with theorizing that links the evolution of within-group altruism to intergroup violence.
Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate, Nature
Excerpt: Using data from 1950 to 2004, we show that the probability of new civil conflicts arising throughout the tropics doubles during El Niño years relative to La Niña years. This result, which indicates that ENSO [El Niño/Southern Oscillation] may have had a role in 21% of all civil conflicts since 1950, is the first demonstration that the stability of modern societies relates strongly to the global climate.
Did Einstein discover E = mc^2?, Physics World
Excerpt: Who discovered that E = mc^2? It's not as easy a question as you might think. Scientists ranging from James Clerk Maxwell and Max von Laue to a string of now-obscure early 20th-century physicists have been proposed as the true discovers of the mass"energy equivalence now popularly credited to Einstein's theory of special relativity. These claims have spawned headlines accusing Einstein of plagiarism, but many are spurious or barely supported. Yet two physicists have now shown that Einstein's famous formula does have a complicated and somewhat ambiguous genesis " which has little to do with relativity.
Communication patterns in a psychotherapy following traumatic brain injury: A quantitative case study based on symbolic dynamics, BMC Psychiatry
Excerpt: The role of psychotherapy in the treatment of traumatic brain injury is receiving increased attention. The evaluation of psychotherapy with these patients has been conducted largely in the absence of quantitative data concerning the therapy itself. Quantitative methods for characterizing the sequence-sensitive structure of patient-therapist communication are now being developed with the objective of improving the effectiveness of psychotherapy following traumatic brain injury.
Fertilizing Nature: A Tragedy of Excess in the Commons, PLoS Biol
Abstract: Globally, we are applying excessive nitrogen (N) fertilizers to our agricultural crops, which ultimately causes nitrogen pollution to our ecosphere. The atmosphere is polluted by N2O and NOx gases that directly and indirectly increase atmospheric warming and climate change. Nitrogen is also leached from agricultural lands as the water-soluble form NO3', which increases nutrient overload in rivers, lakes, and oceans, causing “dead zones”, reducing property values and the diversity of aquatic life, and damaging our drinking water and aquatic-associated industries such as fishing and tourism. Why do some countries show reductions in fertilizer use while others show increasing use? What N fertilizer application reductions could occur, without compromising crop yields? And what are the economic and environmental benefits of using directed nutrient management strategies?
Emergence of robustness against noise: A structural phase transition in evolved models of gene regulatory networks, arXiv
Abstract: As a model of evolved genetic regulatory systems, we investigate the evolution of Boolean networks, which are subject to a selective pressure which favors robustness against noise. By mapping the evolutionary process into a statistical ensemble, and minimizing its associated free energy, we find the structural properties which emerge as the selective pressure is increased, and identify a phase transition from a random topology to a "segregated core" structure, where a smaller and more densely connected subset of the nodes is responsible for most of the regulation in the network. This segregated structure is identical to what is found in gene regulatory networks, where only a much smaller subset of genes - those responsible for transcription factors - are responsible for global regulation. We obtain the full phase diagram of the evolutionary process as a function of selective pressure and the average number of inputs per node. We compare the theoretical predictions with Monte-Carlo simulations of actual networks, and find an excellent agreement.
Book Announcements
Handbook on the Economic Complexity of Technological Change, Edward Elgar Pub
Summary: This book applies the tools of the economics of complexity to analyze the causes and effects of technological and structural change. It grafts the intuitions of the economics of complexity into the tradition of analysis based upon the Schumpeterian and Marshallian legacies. It elaborates the notion of innovation as an emerging property of the organized complexity of an economic system, and provides the basic tools to understand the recursive dynamics between the emergence of innovation and the unfolding of organized complexity. It highlights the role of organizational thinking in explaining the introduction of innovations and the dynamics of structural change.
Maximum Entropy and Ecology: A Theory of Abundance, Distribution, and Energetics, Oxford University Press
Summary: This pioneering textbook provides readers with the concepts and practical tools required to understand the maximum entropy principle, and apply it to an understanding of ecological patterns. Rather than building and combining mechanistic models of ecosystems, the approach is grounded in information theory and the logic of inference. Paralleling the derivation of thermodynamics from the maximum entropy principle, the state variable theory of ecology developed in this book predicts realistic forms for all metrics of ecology that describe patterns in the distribution, abundance, and energetics of species over multiple spatial scales, a wide range of habitats, and diverse taxonomic groups.
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Summary: From the spontaneous rapid firing of cortical neurons to the spatial diffusion of disease epidemics, biological systems exhibit rich dynamic behaviour over a vast range of time and space scales. Unifying many of these diverse phenomena, this book provides the computational and mathematical platform from which to understand the underlying processes of the phenomena. Through an extensive tour of various biological systems, the text introduces computational methods for simulating spatial diffusion processes in excitable media, such as the human heart, as well as mathematical tools for dealing with systems of nonlinear ordinary and partial differential equations.
The Origins of Evolutionary Innovations: A Theory of Transformative Change in Living Systems, Oxford University Press
Summary: The history of life is a nearly four billion year old story of transformative change. This change ranges from dramatic macroscopic innovations such as the evolution of wings or eyes, to a myriad of molecular changes that form the basis of macroscopic innovations. We are familiar with many examples of innovations (qualitatively new phenotypes that can provide a critical benefit) but have no systematic understanding of the principles that allow organisms to innovate. This book proposes several such principles as the basis of a theory of innovation, integrating recent knowledge about complex molecular phenotypes with more traditional Darwinian thinking. (...)
Epistemology of the Cell: A Systems Perspective on Biological Knowledge, Wiley-IEEE Press
Summary: In the era of high biological data throughput, biomedical engineers need a more systematic knowledge of the cell in order to perform more effective data handling. This is the first authored book to break down this knowledge. This text examines the place of biological knowledge within the framework of science as a whole and addresses issues focused on the specific nature of biology, how biology is studied, and how biological knowledge is translated into applications, in particular with regard to medicine. (...)
Links & Snippets
Other Publications
- The accelerating growth of online tagging systems, L. F. Wu, 2011/08/19, Eur. Phys. J. B, DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2011-20187-9
- Complexity of networks I: The set-complexity of binary graphs, Nikita A. Sakhanenko, David J. Galas, 2011/08/26, Complexity Early View, DOI: 10.1002/cplx.20382
- Providing information can be a stable non-cooperative evolutionary strategy, Jean-Louis Dessalles, 2011/08/27, arXiv:1108.5431
- Group selection and inclusive fitness are not equivalent; the Price equation vs. models and statistics, van Veelen M, García J, Sabelis MW, Egas M, August 2011, Journal of Theoretical Biology, in Press, DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.07.025
Event Announcements
- 1st Annual Conference on Integral Biomathics, Stirling, Scotland, 2011/08/29-31
- TAROS 2011: 12th Conference Towards Autonomous Robotic Systems, Sheffield, UK, 2011/08/31-09/02
- The Future of the Embodied Mind, eSMCs Summer School 2011, San Sebastián, Spain, 2011/09/5-9
- The 2011 International Conference on Adaptive & Intelligent Systems - ICAIS'11, Klagenfurt, Austria, 2011/09/06-08
- Fourth International Workshop on Guided Self-Organisation (GSO-2011), University of Hertfordshire in Hatfield, UK, 2011/09/8-10
- ICMC 2011 - 2nd International Conference on Morphological Computation, Venice, Italy, 2011/09/12-14
- European Conference on Complex Systems 2011, Vienna, Austria, 2011/09/12-16
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The 15th WOSC INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS on CYBERNETICS and SYSTEMS, Nanjing, China, 2011/09/15-18
- Interdisciplinary Symposium on Complex Systems, Halkidiki, Greece, 2011/09/19-25
- ICCCI 2011 3rd International Conference on Computational Collective Intelligence: Technologies and Applications, Gdynia, Poland, 2011/09/21-23
- World Conference on Marine Biodiversity, Aberdeen, Scotland, UK, 2011/09/26-30
- SCIENCE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT - ENVIRONMENT FOR SOCIETY, Aarhus, Denmark, 2011/10/5-6
- The Third International Conference on Social Informatics (SocInfo2011), Singapore, 2011/10/6-8
- SSS 2011 - 13th International Symposium on Stabilization, Safety, and Security of Distributed Systems, Grenoble, France, 2011/10/10-12
- EPIA2011 - 15th Portuguese Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Lisbon, Portugal, 2011/10/10-13
- XII Latin American Workshop on Nonlinear Phenomena (LAWNP-2011), San Luis Potosi, Mexico, 2011/10/10-15
- Complexity in Business Conference, Washington, DC, USA, 2011/10/14
- 2nd International Business Complexity & the Global Leader Conference, Boston, MA, USA, 2011/10/17-19
- Third World Congress on Nature and Biologically Inspired Computing (NaBIC2011), Salamanca, Spain, 2011/10/19-21
- AMBIENT 2011: The First International Conference on Ambient Computing, Applications, Services and Technologies and SIMUL 2011: The Third International Conference on Advances in System Simulation, Barcelona, Spain, 2011/10/23-28
- 3rd International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence, Paris, France, 2011/10/24-26
- Complex Adaptive Systems: Energy, Information, and Intelligence, AAAI Fall Symposium; Arlington, VA, 2011/11/4-6
- Workshop on Complex Systems as Computing Models (WCSCM2011), Mexico City, Mexico, 2011/11/9-10
- VI Congreso Bienal Internacional Complejidad 2012, Havana, Cuba, 2012/01/10-13
- 38th International Conference on Current Trends in Theory and Practice of Computer Science, Špindlerův Mlýn, Czech Republic, 2012/01/21"27
- 4th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence - ICAART 2012, Vilamoura, Algarve, Portugal, 2012/02/6-8
- evostar - the main european events on evolutionary computation eurogp, evocop, evobio, evomusart and evoapplications, Málaga, Spain, 2012/03/11-13
- IWSOS'12 (Sixth International Workshop on Self-Organizing Systems), Delft, The Netherlands, 2012/03/15-16
- Collective Intelligence 2012, Cambridge, MA, USA, 2012/04/18-20
Webcast Announcements
- FuturICT videos, ongoing.
- IFISC@uib.es seminars, ongoing.
- Complex Systems: The Challenge of Prediction, Yaneer Bar-Yam, NECSI and MIT/ESD Seminar, 2011/04/08
- Lakeside Research Days 2010.
- Smarter Cities NYC. Posted on 2009/10/05
- ASSYST Digital Library. Since 09/09
- Complex Systems Teleconferences. Since 09/09
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Symmetry Festival 2009, Budapest, Hungary, 09/08/1-4.
- International Workshop on Coping with Crises in Complex Socio-Economic Systems, Zurich, Switzerland, 09/06/8-12
- Memorial Service for Dr Gottfried Mayer, Founding Editor Complexity Digest, Taipei, Taiwan (1954-2009). Video [RM], 09/02/13
- Making Connections: In Memory and Celebration of the Life of Dr. Gottfried Mayer (1954-2009). Video [RM] [MPG], 09/02/13
- Eulogy for Gottfried Mayer by Dean LeBaron [WMV, 25 Mb], [RM, 10 Mb], 09/02/10
- Can Ants Solve Traffic Jams?, Danielle Parsons, Slatev.com, 08/07/22
- Reseau Nationale des Systemes Complexes , (in French), 2007
- World Economic Forum , Davos, Switzerland, 08/01/22-27
- TED Talks, TED Conferences LLC , since 2006
- Talking Robots: The PodCast on Robotics and AI, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, Switzerland, 06/11/03
- Potentials of Complexity Science for Business, Governments, and the Media 2006, Budapest, Hungary, 06/08/03-05
- 6th Intl Conf on Complex Systems (ICCS), Boston, MA, 06/06/25-30
- Artificial Life X, 10th Intl Conf on the Simulation and Synthesis of Living Systems, Bloomington, IN, USA. 2006/06/03-07
- 6th Understanding Complex Systems Symposium, Urbana-Champaign, Il, 06/05/15-18
- Illuminating the Shadow of the Future, Ann Arbor, Mi 05/09/23-25
- Open Network of Centres of Excellence in Complex Systems - Brainstorming Meeting, Paris, France 05/09/19-23
- Complexity, Science & Society Conference 2005, U. Liverpool, UK 2005/09/11-14
- ECAL 2005 - VIIIth European Conference on Artificial Life, Canterbury, Kent, UK 2005/09/5-9
- T. Irene Sanders, Executive Director and Founder, The Washington Center for Complexity & Public Policy, 05/08/27, QuickTime video (10:38 min), Podcast
- North American Society for the Psychology of Sport and Physical Activity 2005 Conference, Virtual Conference Network, St. Pete's Beach, Florida, 05/06/09-11
- Understanding Complex Systems - Computational Complexity and Bioinformatics, Virtual Conference Network, Urbana-Champaign, Il, UIUC, 05/05/16-19
- Nonlinearity, Fluctuations, and Complexity, with a celebration of the 65th birthday of Gregoire Nicolis. , Complexity Session, Universite' Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium, 05/03/16
- 1st European Conference on Complex Systems, Torino, Italy, 04/12/5-7
- From Autopoiesis to Neurophenomenology: A Tribute to Francisco Varela (1946-2001), Paris, France, 2004/06/18-20
- Evolutionary Epistemology, Language, and Culture, Brussels, Belgium, 04/05/26-28
- International Conference on Complex Systems 2004, Boston, 04/05/16-21
- Nonlinear Dynamics And Chaos: Lab Demonstrations, Strogatz, Steven H., Internet-First University Press, 1994
- CERN Webcast Service, Streamed videos of Archived Lectures and Live Events
- Dean LeBaron's Archive of Daily Video Commentary, Ongoing Since February 1998
- Edge Videos
Other Announcements
- Updated website: FuturICT:The ultimate goal of the FuturICT flagship project is to understand and manage complex, global, socially interactive systems, with a focus on sustainability and resilience..
- Postdoctoral fellowship on complexity of animal societies, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 2011/09
- Postdoctoral Fellowships, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Application Deadline: September 29th (tentative, to start March 1st, 2012)
- ASSYSTComplexity
One of the main goals of the ASSYST Coordination Action is to promote Complex Systems for Socially Intelligent ICT (COSI-ICT) and, more generally, Complex Systems (CS) Science in Europe and Worldwide. We do this by communicating widely with scientists, policy makers, and business people, and by showcasing success stories of CS applications. - Job openings in Complex Systems
- Modelling and Physics of Complex Systems, MSc & PhD Programme, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid, Spain.
- Research Positions in Complex Systems
The New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI) has openings for postdoctoral appointments, and scholarships for research supervision in the study of complex systems. - Call for Papers: Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History
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Friends of Complexity Theory in Cuba, inlcudes Revista Pensando la Complejidad.
- DDLab, new release available! DDLab is a free set of tools for researching cellular automata, random Boolean networks, multi-value discrete dynamical networks, and beyond. See introductory video.
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