Complexity Digest 2003.50 - 03.01

Dec. 15, 2003

A Web-Based Investigation Of Human Market Interactions, Physica A Bookmark and Share

Abstract: The unprecedented access offered by the World Wide Web brings with it the potential to gather huge amounts of data on human activities. Here we exploit this by using a toy model of financial markets, the Minority Game, to investigate human speculative trading behaviour and information capacity. Hundreds of individuals have played a total of tens of thousands of game turns (...). In particular, our results indicate a transition in players' decision-making, as the markets become more difficult, between deductive behaviour making use of short-term trends in the market, and highly repetitive behaviour that ignores entirely the market history (...).