Complexity Digest 2012.03 - 17.02
2012/02/03
Editor-in-Chief: Carlos Gershenson
Founding Editor: Gottfried Mayer
A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia, Cliodynamics
Abstract: The escape from the “Malthusian trap” is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in African and West Asian countries in 2012"2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.
- Source: A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia
[ http://escholarship.org/uc/item/79t737gt ], Korotayev, Andrey; Zinkina, Julia; Kobzeva, Svetlana; Bozhevolnov, Justislav; Khaltourina, Daria; Malkov, Artemy et al., Cliodynamics, 2(2), 2011