Excerpts: A new statistical model of the World Cup football tournament could provide a more accurate set of predictions than either bookmakers and television pundits, according to Henry Stott, a mathematician at the University of Warwick, UK.
Stott has used a modelling technique more commonly applied to financial risk assessment to predict the outcome of every game in the 2002 competition, as well as the ultimate winners. (…)
The biggest surprise came in individual matches. Stott's system gave a much higher chance that underdogs would upset strong teams than bookmakers.
- Statistical Model Tackles World Cup Predictions, Will Knight, New Scientist, 02/05/31
Contributing Editor's Note: The concepts of complex adaptive systems (CAS) as networks has been applied to numerous fields and have led to a number of exciting results. It has been applied to brains, communication networks like Internet & World Wide Web to take into account the interactions, nonlinearites within a system that governs its dynamics. The following article is about a book devoted to such effort and describes some examples of CAS.
Excerpts: The most prominent example of a complex adaptive system is our brain. It consists of neurons which are connected by synapses to a complex and intricate network which is (…). In recent years it has become clear that the picture of complex adaptive systems as networks(…) can adapt their dynamical behaviour to external influences, applies to many evolutionary processes ranging from the emergence of life our of a network of interacting biopolymers, via Darwinian evolution with its ecological and economical networks, to the emergence of higher brain functions in neural networks and man made, i.e. evolutionary caused, communications networks like the internet.
Senegal shocked France with the tournament's first goal at the half-hour mark, just when it seemed that the French offside trap had Diouf in fits. The Senegalese striker rounded Frank Leboeuf and laid a dangerous ball across the face of the goal. It took deflections from Emmanuel Petit and Barthez before sitting up wonderfully for Papa Bouba Diop, who easily knocked the ball into the open net from his backside (0:1, 30').
- France 0 : 1 Senegal, FIFAworldcup.com, 02/05/31
(…) expert goalkeepers are much better than novices at predicting where the ball will go and getting there in time. This knack seems to rest on reading the clues in the striker's posture just before he kicks the ball1.
The finding could help players to disguise their kicks - or help goalkeepers save them. "Science suggests that you can minimize the effects of luck by training 'keepers and penalty takers," says Williams. (…) nearly half of World Cup semifinals go to penalties.
- Penalties No Lottery, John Whitfield, Nature Science Update, 02/05/27
- Neuroscience: Will, Anterior Cingulate Cortex, And Addiction, Laura L., Science 2002 296: 1623-1624
Excerpts: As monkeys perform schedules containing several trials with a visual cue indicating reward proximity, their error rates decrease as the number of remaining trials decreases, suggesting that their motivation and/or reward expectancy increases as the reward approaches. (…) had responses that progressively changed strength with reward expectancy, an effect that disappeared when the cue was random. Alterations of this progression could be the basis for the changes from normal that are reported in anterior cingulate population activity for obsessive-compulsive disorder and drug abuse, conditions characterized by disturbances in reward expectancy.
- Anterior Cingulate: Single Neuronal Signals Related to Degree of Reward Expectancy, Shidara, Munetaka, Richmond, Barry J.Laura L.,, Science 2002 296: 1709-1711
Excerpt: Employees who are in daily contact with your customers are more likely to have a clear picture of customer demand than managers several layers removed from the front lines. In the past, though, the sheer complexity of involving frontline employees in the forecasting and budgeting process led to top-down budgeting and planning.
Now software (much of it Web-based) makes it easy for even thousands of employees to simultaneously enter data into standard templates. It "allows you to have a highly collaborative process,"(...).
- Budgeting: 8 Ways to Take Control, Alice Dragoon, Darwin Mag, May 2002
The intelligence comes in the form of a Smart Tag, a tiny chip that can store an electronic product code (ePC), a 96-bit long number. That's long enough to uniquely identify every single product in the world. Smart Tags also have a built-in antenna that can send information wirelessly to a special reader, which in turn can send the information over the Internet, where other applications can use it.
- Bye-Bye Bar Codes? The Smart Chip Could Revolutionize The Supply Chain, Sari Kalin, Darwin Mag, May 2002
Excerpts: What's so great about MPEG-4?
It delivers video quality as good as MPEG-2 at about one-third less the bit rate. (…) It has got higher quality than anything out there--including Microsoft's upcoming Corona--and it's totally scalable. Everybody's jumping on this bandwagon. We've announced we're going to switch over to MPEG-4. Real has said they're going to. All the cell phone companies are going to be using it; it is the standard for third-generation cell phone video streaming. It also features AAC (Advanced Audio Coding) audio, which is the best audio around. It blows away MP3 (and) Windows Media.
- Steve Jobs: MPEG-4 Is The Next Big Thing, Joe Wilcox, ZDNet, 02/06/05
Summary: A light-based scheme for guiding the motion of chemical wave fronts may suggest ways to control analogous waves present in epileptic seizures and heart arrhythmias.
It is now possible to implement control strategies that yield new modes of spatiotemporal behavior in excitable chemical and biological media.
- Design And Control Of Patterns Of Wave Propagation In Excitable Media, Sakurai, T., K. Showalter, Science 2002 0: 10712651-0
Abstract: Coherence of interacting oscillating entities has importance in biological, chemical, and physical systems. We report experiments on populations of chemical oscillators and verify a 25-year-old theory of Kuramoto that predicts that global coupling in a set of smooth limit-cycle oscillators with different frequencies produces a phase transition in which some of the elements synchronize. Both the critical point and the predicted dependence of order on coupling are seen in the experiments. We extend the studies both to relaxation and to chaotic oscillators and characterize the quantitative similarities and differences among the types of systems.
- Emerging Coherence in a Population of Chemical Oscillators, Kiss, Istvan Z., Zhai, Yumei, Hudson, John L. ,Science 2002 296: 1676-1678
- Self-Organized Nanostructures In Surface Chemical Reactions: Mechanisms And Mesoscopic Modeling, M. Hildebrand, Chaos, Vol. 12, Issue 1, pp. 144-156, March 2002
- Contributed by Atin Das
Excerpts: To simulate the Universe in every detail since time began, the computer would have to have 1090 bits - binary digits, or devices capable of storing a 1 or a 0 - and it would have to perform 10120 manipulations of those bits.
"If one regards the Universe as performing a computation, most of the elementary operations in that computation consist of protons, neutrons, electrons and photons moving from place to place and interacting with each other according to the basic laws of physics."
What, then, is the Universe computing? "Its own dynamical evolution".
The Universe is a physical system. The amount of information that the Universe can register and the number of elementary operations that it can have performed over its history are calculated. The Universe can have performed 10120 ops on 1090 bits (10120 bits including gravitational degrees of freedom).
Editor's Note: For a true theoretician an uncertainty of 30 (!) orders of magnitude might not be such a big deal. At least it seems that Lloyd's estimate got the sign right.
Excerpts: Using one of the world's fastest computers outfitted with a host of sophisticated software, Michael Warren and Chris Fryer of Los Alamos National Laboratory and their colleagues created the first three-dimensional computer simulations of a dying star's last moments (…) From the point of core collapse to the fierce supernova explosion--events only milliseconds apart--the new model allows researchers to answer important questions in more detail than ever before. "Modeling the collapse of a massive star represents one of the greatest challenges in computational physics," (…)
- Scientists Add New Dimension to Supernovae Simulations, Rachael Moeller, Scientific American, June 2002
Abstract: Sunspots, dark magnetic regions occurring at low latitudes on the Sun's surface, are tracers of the magnetic field generated by the dynamo mechanism. Recent solar dynamo models, which use the helioseismically determined solar rotation, indicate that sunspots should form at high latitudes, contrary to observations. We present a dynamo model with the correct latitudinal distribution of sunspots and demonstrate that this requires a meridional flow of material that penetrates deeper than hitherto believed, into the stable layers below the convection zone. Such a deep material flow may have important implications for turbulent convection and elemental abundance in the Sun and similar stars.
- Explaining the Latitudinal Distribution of Sunspots with Deep Meridional Flow, Science 2002 296: 1671-1673
Abstract: Models of visual processing often include an initial parallel stage that is restricted to relatively low-level features, whereas activation of higher-level object descriptions is generally assumed to require attention. Here we report that even high-level object representations can be accessed in parallel: in a rapid animal versus non-animal categorization task, both behavioral and electrophysiological data show that human subjects were as fast at responding to two simultaneously presented natural images as they were to a single one. The implication is that even complex natural images can be processed in parallel without the need for sequential focal attention.
- Parallel Processing In High-Level Categorization Of Natural Images, Guillaume, A. R., Michèle F. T. & Simon J. T. , Nature Neuroscience, Vol. 5, No 6, June, 2002, Published online:28 May 2002
Excerpt: Dickerson’s equation predicts that a combined total of 24,667 structures will be found by 2004. "We’re just starting to see an explosion of growth as the field of proteomics comes into its own," he said. "When I started out, it took years to solve a structure; now they’re solving a couple thousand per year."
- Dickerson’s Formula: Biochemistry’s Equivalent to Moore’s Law , enVision . Vol. 18 No. 1.
- Contributed by Nadia Gershenson
- Biochemical Modeling Helps Explain Complex Neural Junction in Chicken Embryo , enVision . Vol. 18 No. 1.
- Contributed by Nadia Gershenson
But new findings go even farther, suggesting that the role of the primary motor cortex might be fundamentally different than originally thought. Rather than simply controlling different parts of the body, it might direct a host of body parts to assume complex postures.
- Redrawing the Brain's Map of the Body, Helmuth, Laura, Science 2002 296: 1587-1588
Abstract: Operant conditioning is a form of associative learning through which an animal learns about the consequences of its behavior. Here, we report an appetitive operant conditioning procedure in Aplysia that induces long-term memory. Biophysical changes that accompanied the memory were found in an identified neuron (cell B51) that is considered critical for the expression of behavior that was rewarded. Similar cellular changes in B51 were produced by contingent reinforcement of B51 with dopamine in a single-cell analog of the operant procedure. These findings allow for the detailed analysis of the cellular and molecular processes underlying operant conditioning.
- Operant Reward Learning in Aplysia: Neuronal Correlates and Mechanisms, Brembs, Bjorn, Lorenzetti, Fred D., Reyes, Fredy D., Baxter, Douglas A., Byrne, John H., Science 2002 296: 1706-1709
Excerpts: The six chemicals, four of which are new to science, are similar to those with which ants alert their nest-mates to trouble. One chemical attracts the ants to the wasp. When they touch it, they pick up the other chemicals that simultaneously repel them and send them into an aggressive frenzy. Avoiding the wasp, they lash out at the nearest thing - a fellow ant. The agitated ants release their own alarm chemicals, triggering more consternation and violence. In laboratory nests, the chaos lasts hours or even days.
Excerpts: The traditional explanation is that each species is adapted to exploit a unique niche - shady or sunny, wet or dry, and so on. But neutral theories assume that all organisms are equal, and consider only factors such as random dispersal, the birth and death of individuals and the total number of organisms in the community.
(…) neutral simulations can produce ecosystems that look just like the real thing. (…)
The debate isn't purely academic - our ideas of how biodiversity arises will influence how we attempt to conserve it.
- Ecology: Neutrality Versus The Niche, John Whitfield, Nature, 417, 480 - 481 (30 May 2002) DOI: 10.1038/417480a
- Efficiency of Scale-Free Networks: Error and Attack Tolerance , Paolo Crucitti, Vito Latora, Massimo Marchiori, Andrea Rapisarda, 2002. (arXiv Paper ID: cond-mat/0205601. 28-May-2002.)
- Contributed by Carlos Gershenson
Abstract: We analyze the spreading of viruses in scale-free networks with high clustering and degree correlations, as found in the Internet graph. For the Suscetible-Infected-Susceptible model of epidemics the prevalence undergoes a phase transition at a finite threshold of the transmission probability. Comparing with the absence of a finite threshold in networks with purely random wiring, our result suggests that high clustering and degree correlations protect scale-free networks against the spreading of viruses. We introduce and verify a quantitative description of the epidemic threshold based on the connectivity of the neighborhoods of the hubs.
- Epidemic Threshold In Structured Scale-Free Networks, Victor M. Eguiluz, Konstantin Klemm, 2002. (arXiv Paper ID: cond-mat/0205439. 21-May-2002.)
- Contributed by Carlos Gershenson
The atomic nucleus is central to many physical and astrophysical processes, including the nuclear processes that power the Sun and synthesize the elements. (…) Bohigas and Leboeuf1 suggest that chaotic motion in the nucleus could influence nuclear mass, and could ultimately limit how accurately nuclear masses can be calculated theoretically.
- Nuclear physics: Weighing Up Nuclear Masses, Sven Åberg, Nature 417, 499 - 501 (2002); doi:10.1038/417499a
Abstract: Shell corrections are important in the determination of nuclear ground-state masses and shapes. Although general arguments favor a regular single-particle dynamics, symmetry breaking and the presence of chaotic layers cannot be excluded. The latter provide a natural framework that explains the observed differences between experimental and computed masses.
- Nuclear Masses: Evidence of Order-Chaos Coexistence, O. Bohigas and P. Leboeuf , Phys. Rev. Lett. 88, 092502 (2002)
Excerpts: (…) molecules are composite objects with complex internal structure, which raises a serious conceptual question about whether a stable molecular condensate could ever exist.
(…) If such a condensate were made, it might reveal new molecular spectroscopy and collision physics, and could open the door to new applications in ultracold quantum chemistry, or even quantum computing1. Now, on page 529 of this issue, Donley et al.2 report an experiment that is tantalizingly close to demonstrating the creation of a molecular condensate.
- Bose-Einstein Condensation: Making It With Molecules, Peter Zoller, Nature, 417, 493 - 494 (30 May 2002) DOI: 10.1038/417493a
- Rumsfeld Warns Al-Qaeda Could Exploit Indo-Pak Standoff , PTI , Hindustan Times, Washington, 02/06/05
- Contributed by Stuart Hall
Excerpt: The Pakistani intelligence officials acknowledged that tensions with India had seriously impaired Pakistan's ability to station troops and operate patrols along the border with Afghanistan, where U.S. officials appear to have focused most of their concern. "We are very concerned about that region, but protecting the border with India must be our priority," one of the officials said.
Excerpts: The CIA told the FBI in January 2000 that one of the Sept. 11 hijackers was attending a meeting of suspected terrorists in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, (…).
The disclosure contradicts repeated assertions by senior FBI officials that bureau headquarters had no information about Khalid Almihdhar before Aug. 23, 2001, when the CIA issued an urgent cable that he and another hijacker, Nawaf Alhazmi, should be stopped at the U.S. border. Both were already in the country at the time.
- CIA Gave FBI Warning On Hijacker, Agency Told That Almihdhar Attended Malaysia Meeting, Walter Pincus, Dan Eggen,Washington Post, 02/06/04
Excerpts: While she commended most of FBI Director Robert S. Mueller III's plans to reorganize the agency, Rowley said she and many other agents remain concerned that too much power will be concentrated in Washington.
"Six to nine levels [of bureaucracy] is really ridiculous," she said, referring to an organizational chart of the revamped FBI. (…)
The classified correspondence contained her complaints that FBI headquarters officials put up "roadblocks" as Minneapolis agents frantically tried to secure the search warrant for Moussaoui's belongings.
- FBI Whistle-Blower Assails Bloated Bureaucracy, Dan Eggen, Washington Post, 02/06/07
- Understanding Complex Systems: Symposium Complexity in Physical and Biological Structures, Medicine & Ecology, Department of Physics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 02/05/13-15
- ROBOT: The Future of Flesh and Machine, Rodney A. Brooks, MIT AI Lab, Talk given at the School of Cognitive and Computing Sciences of the University of Sussex, May 14th, 2002.
- The Body is a Machine, the World is a System: The Convergence of Engineering and the Life Sciences, Cornell Society of Engineers Conference, 02/04/11-13
- Powell Voices Support for Scientific Contributions to U.S. Foreign Policy, 139th Annual Meeting of the National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., 02/04/30
- Invisible Advantage Webcast, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 02/05/15, Jon Low, Center for Business Innovation Senior Research Fellow, will preview his new book, Invisible Advantage
- Introducing Complexity, The University of Liverpool ,02/04/24, (mp3 web-cast and audio download, contributed by Carlos Gershenson)
- Symmetry in Science and Art - Symmetry in Chaos, (In German), O.E. Roessler, 01/12/17
- Dean LeBaron's Archive of Daily Video Commentary, Ongoing Since February 1998
- International Conference SocioPhysics, ZIF - Bielefeld, Germany, 02/06/06-09
- International Conference on Complex Systems (ICCS2002), Nashua, NH, 02/06/09-14
- Sitges Conference "Statistical Mechanics of Complex Networks", Sitges, Spain, 02/06/10-14
- 2nd International Conference on Development and Learning (ICDL'02), Cambridge, Massachusetts USA, 02/06/12-15
- AES 22nd International Conference on Virtual, Synthetic And Entertainment Audio, Espoo, Finland, 02/06/15-17
- Complex Systems: Control and Modeling Problems, Samara, Russia, 02/06/17
- 3rd European Interdisciplinary School on Nonlinear Dynamics for System and Signal Analysis EUROATTRACTOR2002, Warsaw, 02/06/18-27
- International Conference: Emergence in Chemical Systems, University of Alaska Anchorage, 02/06/20-23
- Plexus Conference - Diffusing Innovations: Learning With Everett Rogers & Each Other, Borgess Navigation Center Kalamazoo, Michigan USA , 02/06/21-22
- Let's Face Chaos Through Nonlinear Dynamics, Maribor, Slovenia, 02/06/30 - 07/14
- 7th International Conference on Music Perception & Cognition - ICMPC7, Sydney, 02/07/17-21
- 20th System Dynamics Conference: Organizational Change Dynamics - Understanding Systems, Managing Transformation, Palermo, Italy, 02/07/28-08/01
- Complexity and Philosophy, Norwood, Massachusetts, USA, 02/07/29-30
- Workshop On Fluctuations Chaos And Complexity In Multistable Systems, Lancaster University, 02/08/01-07
- 12th Ann Intl Conf Society For Chaos Theory in Psychology & Life Sciences: Chaos and Complexity in a Changing World, Portland, OR, USA, 02/08/01-04
- International Workshop on Meta-Synthesis and Complex Systems, Shanghai, China, 02/08/07-08
- Econophysics Conference, Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia, 02/08/29-31
- Self-Organisation and Evolution of Social Behaviour, Monte Verità, Switzerland, 02/09/08-13
- Complex Systems (CS02) Complexity with Agent-Based Modeling, Chuo University, Tokyo, Japan, 02/09/10-12
- 3rd Intl NAISO Symposium on Engineering Of Intelligent Systems (EIS 20020), Malaga, Spain, 02/09/24-27
- Seminar on Non-equilibrium Phenomena and Phase Transitions in Complex Systems, Avila, Spain, 02/09/24-28.
- ACRI 2002, 5th Intl Conf on Cellular Automata for Research and Industry, Geneva, Switzerland, 02/10/09-11
- Dynamical Systems Methods for Advanced Diagnosis and Prognosis, 39th Annual Technical Meeting of the Society of Engineering Science, University Park, Pennsylvania, 02/10/13-16
- 4th Asia-Pacific Conference on Simulated Evolution And Learning (SEAL'02), 9th International Conference on Neural Information Processing (ICONIP'02), International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery (FSKD'02), Singapore, 02/11/18-22
- Managing the Complex IV, Naples , FL, Early December 2002
- Artificial Life VIII, UNSW, Sydney, Australia, 02/12/09-13
- Hawaii International Conference On System Sciences (HICSS-36), Big Island, Hawaii, 03/01/06-09
- 21st ICDE World Conference on Open Learning and Distance Education, Hong Kong, 03/06/01-05